# Table 19 Verification + Youth Sign Flip Analysis

## Table 19 Verification: 5-Year Lagged Demographics

### Banking — Contemporary Z (N=5489, R²=0.0080)

- Z_1: -0.1589 (se=0.0701, p=0.0234) **
- Z_2: 0.0216 (se=0.0105, p=0.0402) **
- Z_3: -0.0008 (se=0.0004, p=0.0668) *
- fiscal_bal_gdp: -0.0002 (se=0.0003, p=0.6225) 
- nfa_gdp_lag: -0.0007 (se=0.0015, p=0.6179) 
- rgdp_growth: -0.0010 (se=0.0003, p=0.0001) ***
- kaopen: -0.0016 (se=0.0012, p=0.1732) 

### Banking — 5-Year Lag (N=5489, R²=0.0081)

- Z_1_lag5: -0.1686 (se=0.0699, p=0.0159) **
- Z_2_lag5: 0.0237 (se=0.0107, p=0.0261) **
- Z_3_lag5: -0.0009 (se=0.0004, p=0.0432) **
- fiscal_bal_gdp: -0.0002 (se=0.0003, p=0.5752) 
- nfa_gdp_lag: -0.0008 (se=0.0015, p=0.5824) 
- rgdp_growth: -0.0011 (se=0.0003, p=0.0001) ***
- kaopen: -0.0017 (se=0.0012, p=0.1528) 
### CA Reversal — Contemporary Z (N=5489, R²=0.0285)

- Z_1: -0.5539 (se=0.2339, p=0.0179) **
- Z_2: 0.0984 (se=0.0351, p=0.0051) ***
- Z_3: -0.0046 (se=0.0014, p=0.0013) ***
- fiscal_bal_gdp: -0.0033 (se=0.0010, p=0.0013) ***
- nfa_gdp_lag: 0.0224 (se=0.0049, p=0.0000) ***
- rgdp_growth: -0.0019 (se=0.0009, p=0.0325) **
- kaopen: 0.0005 (se=0.0040, p=0.8939) 

### CA Reversal — 5-Year Lag (N=5489, R²=0.0289)

- Z_1_lag5: -0.4849 (se=0.2333, p=0.0377) **
- Z_2_lag5: 0.0886 (se=0.0356, p=0.0127) **
- Z_3_lag5: -0.0042 (se=0.0015, p=0.0039) ***
- fiscal_bal_gdp: -0.0034 (se=0.0010, p=0.0010) ***
- nfa_gdp_lag: 0.0227 (se=0.0049, p=0.0000) ***
- rgdp_growth: -0.0019 (se=0.0009, p=0.0252) **
- kaopen: 0.0004 (se=0.0039, p=0.9230) 

## Youth Sign Flip: Multicollinearity Analysis

- Correlation(youth_dep, old_dep): -0.7120

### Variance Inflation Factors

| Variable | VIF |
|:---|---:|
| youth_dep | 2.31 |
| old_dep | 2.25 |
| fiscal_bal_gdp | 1.07 |
| nfa_gdp_lag | 1.16 |
| rgdp_growth | 1.05 |
| kaopen | 1.38 |

- Condition number: 2.90

### Joint Significance Tests

- **CA Reversal**: Joint F(2,5482) = 37.327 (p = 0.0000)
  - Unrestricted R² = 0.0232, Restricted R² = 0.0098
- **Banking**: Joint F(2,5482) = 3.231 (p = 0.0396)
  - Unrestricted R² = 0.0049, Restricted R² = 0.0038

### Interpretation Note

When youth_dep and old_dep enter jointly, multicollinearity (VIF values above) makes individual coefficients unreliable. The joint F-test is the appropriate test of demographic significance. The sign flip on youth_dep in the joint specification reflects collinearity with old_dep, not a reversal of the underlying relationship.